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Behavior Genetics

Springer Science and Business Media LLC

Preprints posted in the last 7 days, ranked by how well they match Behavior Genetics's content profile, based on 15 papers previously published here. The average preprint has a 0.00% match score for this journal, so anything above that is already an above-average fit.

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Multi-Ancestry Survival GWAS of Substance Use Initiation in the ABCD Study

Wei, M.; Peng, Q.

2026-04-11 genetic and genomic medicine 10.64898/2026.04.08.26350431 medRxiv
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BackgroundSubstance use initiation in adolescence is influenced by both genetic and environmental factors; however, large-scale genetic studies often treat initiation as a binary outcome and underuse longitudinal timing information. MethodsWe conducted time-to-event (survival) genome-wide association analyses (GWAS) of initiation for four outcomes--alcohol, nicotine, cannabis, and any substance use--using longitudinal follow-up data from the Adolescent Brain Cognitive Development (ABCD) Study. We performed ancestry-stratified GWAS within European (EUR), African (AFR), and Hispanic (HISP) groups, applying consistent quality control and covariate adjustment. Summary statistics were harmonized across ancestries and meta-analyzed using inverse-variance weighted fixed-effects and DerSimonian-Laird random-effects models. We evaluated genomic inflation and heterogeneity (Cochrans Q and I2), identified independent lead variants at genome-wide and suggestive significance thresholds, and assessed cross-trait overlap of associated loci. ResultsIn the multi-ancestry meta-analysis, we observed suggestive association signals across traits (minimum p-values: alcohol [~] 1 x 10-7, any [~] 1 x 10-7, cannabis [~] 5 x 10-8, nicotine [~] 1 x 10-8). Nicotine initiation showed one genome-wide significant variant in both fixed- and random-effects meta-analyses (p < 5 x 10-8). Across traits, suggestive loci demonstrated limited overlap, with the strongest concordance between alcohol and any substance use, consistent with shared liability. Heterogeneity statistics indicated that some loci exhibited cross-ancestry variation in effect estimates. ConclusionsSurvival GWAS leveraging initiation timing can identify genetic signals that may be missed by binary designs and enables principled multi-ancestry synthesis. Our results highlight both shared and trait-specific genetic contributions to early substance initiation and provide a foundation for downstream functional annotation and integrative modeling with environmental risk factors. These findings demonstrate the value of incorporating developmental timing into genetic discovery and provide a framework for integrating longitudinal risk modeling with genomic analyses.

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A Machine Learning Based Causal Interface for Time-Varying Environmental Predictors of Substance Use Initiation in the ABCD Study

Wei, M.; Yadlapati, L.; Peng, Q.

2026-04-17 addiction medicine 10.64898/2026.04.15.26350988 medRxiv
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Background: The Adolescent Brain Cognitive Development (ABCD) Study provides rich longitudinal data on environmental, genetic, and behavioral factors related to substance use initiation. Classical marginal structural models (MSMs) require selecting covariates for propensity models, which is challenging when there are many correlated predictors. Methods: We analyzed longitudinal panel data from 11,868 ABCD participants with repeated observations over time. Interval-level binary outcomes were defined for initiation of alcohol, nicotine, cannabis, and any substance, including only participants at risk before initiation. All predictors were constructed as lagged variables to preserve temporal ordering. We used a two-stage machine learning-based causal framework. First, we performed graph discovery using a Granger-inspired lagged predictive modeling approach with elastic-net logistic regression to identify relationships between past predictors and future outcomes. Stable candidate edges were selected using subject-level bootstrap stability selection. Second, we estimated adjusted effects for stable predictors using double machine learning (DML) with partialling-out and cross-fitting. For each predictor, the lagged variable was treated as the exposure and adjusted for high-dimensional lagged covariates. Cross-fitting with group-based splitting accounted for within-subject dependence. Nuisance functions were estimated using random forests, and cluster-robust standard errors were used for inference. Results: We identified stable predictors across multiple domains, including sleep patterns, family environment, peer relationships, behavioral traits, and genetic risk. Many predictors were shared across substance outcomes, while some were outcome-specific. Effect sizes were modest, typically ranging from -0.01 to 0.02 per standard deviation increase in the predictor. Both risk-increasing and protective associations were observed. Risk factors included sleep disturbance and behavioral risk indicators, while protective factors included parental monitoring and structured environments. Conclusions: This study presents a practical framework for analyzing high-dimensional longitudinal data and identifying time-varying predictors of substance use initiation. The approach combines machine learning for variable selection with causal inference for effect estimation. The results highlight both shared and outcome-specific risk factors and identify modifiable targets, such as family environment and sleep, that may inform prevention strategies.

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Mapping the Dynamic Interplay of Mental Health and Weight Across Childhood: Data-Driven Explorations Using Causal Discovery

Larsen, T. E.; Lorca, M. H.; Ekstrom, C. T.; Vinding, R.; Bonnelykke, K.; Strandberg-Larsen, K.; Petersen, A. H.

2026-04-17 epidemiology 10.64898/2026.04.16.26350943 medRxiv
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Childhood weight development, especially overweight and obesity, has been associated with mental health, but their dynamic, causal relationships, and whether these differ by sex, remain unclear. We applied causal discovery to data from the Danish National Birth Cohort (n=67,593) spanning six periods from pregnancy to late adolescence and considering 67 variables related to child and parental weight, mental health, lifestyle, and socio-economic factors. We found no statistically significant difference between the causal graphs for boys and girls (P=0.079). The data-driven models found causal influence of childhood weight on subsequent weight status. Mental health pathways were exclusively within or across adjacent periods and centered on early adolescent stress. We examined the interplay between a subset of mental health variables, containing information on externalizing and internalizing problems, and weight, and found no direct causal pathway between the two processes. These findings suggest that observed links between weight and these mental health measures may be attributable to confounding. Our findings demonstrate the value of data-driven causal discovery in large cohort studies and how to test for differences in causal mechanisms across subgroups. Results are available in an interactive application, enabling future research to further explore the interplay between weight and mental health.

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Social mobility and long-term episodic memory in Britain

Tampubolon, G.

2026-04-13 epidemiology 10.64898/2026.04.12.26350709 medRxiv
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Population ageing increases the importance of cognitive capacity for making decisions about retirement and living independently beyond it. We tested whether post-war educational expansion and working-life social mobility eliminate the association between social class of origin and cognition in early old age using the 1958 National Child Development Study. Two outcomes were analysed at age 62: standard episodic memory (immediate + delayed word recall) and long-term episodic memory, capturing accurate half-century recall of childhood household facts (rooms and people at age 11 validated against mothers' responses). Social mobility trajectories derived in prior work were classified into predominantly manual versus non-manual class trajectories. Models were estimated separately for women and men across three specifications: (i) social origin and controls, (ii) adding social mobility, and (iii) adding weighting to address healthy survivor bias. Education was consistently associated with both outcomes. For long-term episodic memory, social origin gradients were clearer than for short-term episodic memory, with men from service/professional origins showing a 13 percentage-point higher probability of accurate half-century recall than men from manual origins. These findings indicate that education expansion and working-life social mobility failed to release the grip of social origin on long-term episodic memory.

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Assessing Swedish Genetic Counselling Outcome Measures for Autism and General Use: Rasch Findings Highlight the Need for Improved Measures

Nordstrand, M.; Fajutrao Falk, S.; Johansson, M.; Pestoff, R.; Tammimies, K.

2026-04-15 genetic and genomic medicine 10.64898/2026.04.13.26350766 medRxiv
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Genetic counselling outcome measures are increasingly adapted for diverse clinical contexts. While the Genetic Counselling Outcome Scale (GCOS-24) is available in Swedish, no autism-specific version has been developed. Therefore, we adapted the Swedish GCOS-24 using the English version of the modified GCOS-24 (mGCSOS-24) to create a Swedish autism-specific mGCOS-24. Thereafter, we evaluated both the Swedish autism mGCOS-24 and the Swedish general GCOS-24 using Rasch analysis to assess their psychometric properties. Both instruments exhibited structural challenges, including multidimensionality, disordered thresholds, local item dependence, and invariance issues. For the Swedish autism mGCOS-24, we were able to identify subscales with acceptable measurement properties. However, applying the same structure to the Swedish general GCOS-24 did not resolve its broader limitations. This study introduces the first Swedish autism-specific mGCOS-24 and represents the first Rasch-based evaluation of any GCOS-24 or mGCOS-24 in Swedish. Our findings highlight important opportunities for measure refinement but also indicate that new or more substantially adapted tools may be needed to capture outcomes of genetic counselling in autistic populations.

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Genetic predisposition to loneliness increases schizophrenia and depression risk through inflammatory pathways: a Mendelian randomization study

Romualdo-Perez, C. I.; Khandaker, G. M.; Sanderson, E.; Lau, J.; Carvalho, L. A.

2026-04-13 genetic and genomic medicine 10.64898/2026.04.08.26350416 medRxiv
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BackgroundLoneliness is a psychosocial stressor associated with elevated risk of severe mental illness (SMI), including major depressive disorder (MDD), schizophrenia (SCZ), and bipolar disorder (BD). Loneliness is theorized to become biologically embedded via inflammation-related mechanisms, yet its causal relationship with SMI and the role of inflammatory signaling remain unclear. AimsTo investigate whether loneliness causally influences SMI risk and whether inflammatory cytokines mediate this relationship. MethodWe applied univariable Mendelian randomization (MR) to estimate the causal effect of loneliness on SMI and multivariable MR (MVMR) to assess mediation by inflammatory signaling. We integrated genome-wide association study (GWAS) summary statistics for loneliness and SMI with genetic instruments for inflammatory cytokines. MVMR models estimated the direct effect of loneliness after accounting for inflammatory signaling using eQTL and pQTLs for interleukin-1 receptor antagonist (IL-1RA), interleukin-6 (IL-6), IL-6 receptor (IL-6R), tumor necrosis factor alpha (TNF-), and TNF receptors (TNF-R1/2). Bidirectional MR examined potential reverse causal pathways between inflammation, SMI, and loneliness. ResultsMR provided evidence consistent with a causal effect of loneliness on SCZ and MDD. Results were also consistent with inflammatory cytokine pathways for IL-1RA, IL-6R, and TNF-R1, partially mediating the loneliness-SCZ and loneliness-MDD causal effect. No significant effects were identified for BD in UVMR or MVMR models. Bidirectional MR suggested evidence of reverse causation between SCZ and loneliness. ConclusionsThe findings support a causal risk-increasing effect of loneliness on SCZ and MDD, partially mediated by systemic inflammatory signaling, implicating pathways as a plausible mechanistic link between psychosocial stress and mental illness risk and highlighting potential opportunities for prevention and targeted intervention through inflammation and social pathways.

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Dynamic and Baseline Multi-Task Learning for Predicting Substance Use Initiation in the ABCD Study

Wei, M.; Zhang, H.; Peng, Q.

2026-04-13 addiction medicine 10.64898/2026.04.10.26350655 medRxiv
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Background: Early initiation of substance use is linked to later adverse outcomes, and risk factors come from multiple domains and are shared across substances. In our previous work, traditional time-to-event Cox models identified individual risk factors, but these models are not designed to jointly model multiple outcomes or capture complex non-linear relationships. Multi-task learning (MTL) can leverage shared structure across related outcomes to improve prediction and distinguish common versus substance-specific predictors. However, most MTL studies rely on baseline features and focus on single outcomes, which limits their ability to capture shared risk and temporal changes. Substance use initiation is a time-dependent process that unfolds during development and reflects changing exposures over time. Baseline-only models cannot capture these changes or represent risk dynamics. Discrete-time modeling provides a practical approach by estimating interval-level initiation risk and combining it into cumulative risk at the subject level. By integrating multi-task learning with dynamic modeling, it is possible to share information across outcomes while capturing how risk evolves over time, which may improve prediction performance. Methods: Using the Adolescent Brain Cognitive Development (ABCD) Study (release 5.1), we developed two complementary multi-task learning (MTL) frameworks to predict initiation of alcohol, nicotine, cannabis, and any substance use. A baseline MTL model predicted fixed- horizon (48-month) initiation using one record per participant, while a dynamic discrete-time MTL model incorporated longitudinal interval data to model time-varying risk. Both models used multi-domain environmental exposures, core covariates, and polygenic risk scores (PRS). Performance was evaluated on a held-out test set using AUROC, PR-AUC, and calibration metrics, and compared with single-task logistic regression (LR). Feature importance was assessed using permutation importance and compared with Cox proportional hazards models. Results: MTL showed comparable or improved performance relative to LR, with larger gains for low-prevalence outcomes (cannabis and nicotine). Incorporating longitudinal information led to consistent improvements across all outcomes. Dynamic models increased AUROC by +0.044 to +0.062 for MTL and +0.050 to +0.084 for LR, indicating that temporal information was the primary driver of performance gains. Feature importance analyses showed modest overlap across methods, with higher agreement between dynamic MTL and Cox models than static MTL. A small set of features, including externalizing behavior, parental monitoring, and developmental factors, were consistently identified across all approaches. Conclusions: Dynamic multi-task learning improves the prediction of substance use initiation by leveraging longitudinal structure and shared information across outcomes. While MTL provides additional gains, incorporating time-varying information is the dominant factor for improving performance. Combining baseline and dynamic frameworks offers a comprehensive strategy for identifying robust risk factors and modeling adolescent substance use initiation.

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Perceived vs. actual navigation ability: Differences between autistic and typically developing children

McKeown, D. J.; Cruzado, O. S.; Colombo, G.; Angus, D. J.; Schinazi, V. R.

2026-04-13 psychiatry and clinical psychology 10.64898/2026.04.09.26350542 medRxiv
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PurposeNavigational ability develops throughout childhood alongside the maturation of brain regions supporting egocentric and allocentric processing. In Autism Spectrum Disorder (ASD), atypical hippocampal development may impact flexible spatial memory; however, findings on navigational ability in autistic children remain inconsistent. This study aimed to compare both objective and perceived navigation ability in children with ASD and typically developing (TD) peers. MethodTwenty-six children with high-functioning ASD and twenty-five age- and gender-matched TD children (M_age = 12.04 years, SD = 1.64) completed a battery of navigational tasks from the Spatial Performance Assessment for Cognitive Evaluation (SPACE), including Path Integration, Egocentric Pointing, Mapping, Associative Memory, and Perspective Taking. Perceived navigation ability was assessed using the Santa Barbara Sense of Direction (SBSOD) scale. ResultsNo significant group differences were observed across any objective navigation tasks. However, children with ASD reported significantly lower perceived navigation ability compared to TD peers. ConclusionThese findings suggest a dissociation between perceived and actual navigational ability in ASD. By early adolescence, objective navigation performance appears intact, potentially reflecting sufficient maturation of underlying neural systems or the presence of compensatory mechanisms. The results underscore the importance of incorporating objective, task-based measures when assessing cognitive abilities in autistic populations.

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Early-life adversity and markers of vulnerability to enduring pain in youth: a multimodal neuroimaging study of the ABCD cohort

Quide, Y.; Lim, T. E.; Gustin, S. M.

2026-04-11 psychiatry and clinical psychology 10.64898/2026.04.07.26350367 medRxiv
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BackgroundEarly-life adversity (ELA) is a risk factor for enduring pain in youth and is associated with alterations in brain morphology and function. However, it remains unclear whether ELA-related neurobiological changes contribute to the development of enduring pain in early adolescence. MethodsUsing data from the Adolescent Brain Cognitive Development (ABCD) Study, we examined multimodal magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) markers in children assessed at baseline (ages 9-11 years) and at 2-year follow-up (ages 11-13 years). ELA exposure was defined at baseline to maximise temporal separation between early adversity and later enduring pain. Participants with enduring pain at follow-up (n = 322) were compared to matched pain-free controls (n = 644). Structural MRI, diffusion MRI (fractional anisotropy, mean diffusivity), and resting-state functional connectivity data were analysed. Linear models tested main effects of enduring pain, ELA, and their interaction on brain metrics, controlling for relevant covariates. ResultsELA exposure was associated with smaller caudate and nucleus accumbens volumes, and reduced surface area of the left rostral middle frontal gyrus. No significant effects of enduring pain or ELA-by-enduring pain interaction were observed across grey matter, white matter, or functional connectivity measures. ConclusionsELA was associated with alterations in fronto-striatal regions in late childhood, but these changes were not linked to enduring pain in early adolescence. These findings suggest that ELA-related neurobiological alterations may represent early markers of vulnerability rather than concurrent correlates of enduring pain. Longitudinal follow-up is needed to determine whether these alterations contribute to later chronic pain risk.

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Estimating severity and rate of change of depressive symptoms in adolescence: a comparison of functional principal component analysis and mixed effects models

Hernandez, M. A.; Kwong, A. S.; Li, C.; Simpkin, A. J.; Wootton, R. E.; Joinson, C.; Elhakeem, A.

2026-04-14 epidemiology 10.64898/2026.04.09.26350500 medRxiv
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Understanding depressive symptoms dynamics and their determinants is crucial for designing effective mental health support initiatives. This study compared two methods for describing youth depressive symptoms trajectories and investigated associations of early-life factors (maternal education, maternal perinatal depression, domestic violence, physical, emotional, or sexual abuse, bullying victimisation, psychiatric disorder) with trajectory features. Prospective data from 8,264 mostly White European participants (54% female), including self-reported Short Moods and Feelings Questionnaires on ten occasions between 10-25 years, were used. Trajectories were summarised using functional principal component analysis (FPCA) and P-splines linear mixed-effect (PLME) models. Estimated derivatives were used to obtain magnitude and age of peak symptoms and peak symptoms velocity. Both methods performed comparably, but PLME models tended to over-smooth trajectories. Peak symptoms and peak velocity were higher and occurred >1 year earlier in females than males. All early-life factors were associated with higher peak symptoms, and most associated with higher and earlier peak velocity. Abuse and bullying additionally associated with earlier age of peak symptoms. FPCA is a useful alternative for characterising depressive symptoms trajectories and informing time-sensitive preventative measures to reduce impact of depression before symptoms reach their peak. Early-life stressors may accelerate timeline and intensity of symptoms escalation during adolescence. Lay summaryUnderstanding development of depressive symptoms and factors shaping them is crucial for designing effective mental health support initiatives. This study used data from over 8,000 young people regularly followed up from before birth to compare two cutting-edge methods for describing depressive symptoms trajectories and examined how known risk factors for adulthood depression relate to the severity and rate of change of depressive symptoms in adolescence. We found that both methods performed well and that the peaks in depressive symptoms and their rate of change were, on average, higher and occurred over a year earlier in females than males. Our findings additionally suggest that early-life stressors (e.g., abuse, bullying) may accelerate the development of depression, highlighting the importance of early prevention.

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The Madrid Manic Group (MadManic) Cohort: Multi-Omics and Digital Phenotyping For the Studies of Severe Mental Disorders and Suicidality

Garcia-Ortiz, I.; Somavilla Cabrero, R.; Madridejos Palomares, E.; Martinez-Jimenez, M.; Bello Sousa, R. A.; Carpio-Lopez, I.; Sanchez-Alonso, S.; Benavente Lopez, S.; Mata-Iturralde, L.; Alvarez Garcia, R.; Romero-Miguel, D.; Jimenez Munoz, L.; Di Stasio, E.; Ortega Heras, A. J.; de la Fuente Rodriguez, S.; Aguilar Castillo, I.; Lara Fernandez, A.; Clarke Gil, I.; Vaquero Lorenzo, C.; Hoffmann, P.; Lopez de la Hoz, C.; Borge Garcia, N.; Abad Valle, J.; Sanchez Alonso, M. J.; Arroyo Bello, E.; Jimenez Peral, R.; de Granda Beltran, A. M.; Fullerton, J. M.; Bermejo Bermejo, M.; Albarracin-Garcia

2026-04-16 genetic and genomic medicine 10.64898/2026.04.14.26350865 medRxiv
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Severe mental disorders (SMDs), including bipolar disorder, schizophrenia, and major depressive disorder, are highly complex conditions associated with a substantial clinical burden and an increased suicide risk. Here, we present the Madrid Manic Cohort (MadManic), a large-scale initiative from Spain designed to integrate genomic, multi-omics, clinical, and digital phenotyping data to investigate the biological basis and clinical heterogeneity of SMDs. The cohort is still expanding and currently includes over 4,400 participants (~2,300 psychiatric patients and ~2,100 controls) and >11,000 biospecimens. Genotyping, transcriptomic and epigenetic data are available for different subsets of the cohort. By establishing the MadManic cohort we aim to integrate molecular data with detailed clinical and longitudinal digital information, allowing a more precise characterization of patient subgroups based on biological and phenotypic profiles. The MadManic cohort is well positioned to contribute to major international efforts in psychiatric genetics by enhancing the representation of Southern European populations, and advancing the identification of genetic risk, clinical predictors, and pharmacogenomic markers of treatment response. This cohort represents a valuable resource for advancing precision psychiatry, with the potential to improve risk prediction and guide personalized interventions in SMDs.

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The effect of sedentary behaviour and physical activity on 1719 diseases: a Mendelian randomisation phenome-wide association study (MR-PheWAS)

Xu, J.; Parker, R. M. A.; Bowman, K.; Clayton, G. L.; Lawlor, D. A.

2026-04-14 public and global health 10.64898/2026.04.10.26350507 medRxiv
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Background Higher levels of sedentary behaviour, such as leisure screen time (LST), and lower levels of physical activity are associated with diseases across multiple body systems which contribute to a large global health burden. Whether these associations are causal is unclear. The primary aim of this study is to investigate the causal effects of higher LST (given greater power) and, secondarily, lower moderate-to-vigorous intensity physical activity (MVPA), on a wide range of diseases in a hypothesis-free approach. Methods A two-sample Mendelian randomisation phenome-wide association study was conducted for the main analyses. Genetic single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) were first selected as exposure genetic instruments for LST (hours of television watched per day; 117 SNPs) and MVPA (higher vs. lower; 18 SNPs) based on the genome-wide significant threshold (p < 5*10-8) from the largest relevant genome-wide association study (GWAS). For disease outcomes, we used summary results from FinnGen GWAS, including 1,719 diseases defined by hospital discharge International Classification of Diseases (ICD) codes in 453,733 European participants. For the main analyses, we used the inverse-variance weighting method with a Bonferroni corrected p-value of p [&le;] 3.47*10-4. Sensitivity analyses included Steiger filtering, MR-Egger and weighted median analyses, and data from UK Biobank were used to explore replication. Findings Genetically predicted higher LST was associated with increased risk of 87 (5.1% of the 1,719) diseases. Most of these diseases were in musculoskeletal and connective tissue (n=37), genitourinary (n=12) and respiratory (n=8) systems. Genetic liability to lower MVPA was associated with six diseases: three in musculoskeletal and connective tissue and genitourinary systems (with greater risk of these diseases also identified with higher LST), and three in respiratory and genitourinary systems. Sensitivity analyses largely supported the main analyses. Results replicated in UK Biobank, where data available. Conclusions Higher levels of sedentary behaviour, and lower levels of physical activity, causally increase the risk of diseases across multiple body systems, making them promising targets for reducing multimorbidity.

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Years Lived without Chronic Diseases after Statutory Retirement - A Register Linkage Follow-up Study in Finland 2000-2021

Pietilainen, O.; Salonsalmi, A.; Rahkonen, O.; Lahelma, E.; Lallukka, T.

2026-04-13 public and global health 10.64898/2026.04.12.26348889 medRxiv
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Objectives: Longer lifespans lead to longer time on retirement, despite the efforts to raise the retirement age. Therefore, it is important to study how the retirement years can be spent without diseases. This study examined socioeconomic and sociodemographic differences in healthy years spent on retirement. Methods: We followed a cohort of retired Finnish municipal employees (N=4231, average follow-up 15.4 years) on national administrative registers for major chronic diseases: cancer, coronary heart disease, cerebrovascular disease, diabetes, asthma or chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, dementia, mental disorders, and alcohol-related disorders. Median healthy years on retirement and age at first occurrence of illness (ICD-10 and ATC-based) in each combination of sex, occupational class, and age of retirement were predicted using Royston-Parmar models. Prevalence rates for each diagnostic group were calculated. Results: Most healthy years on retirement were spent by women having worked in semi-professional jobs who retired at age 60-62 (median predicted healthy years 11.6, 95% CI 10.4-12.7). The least healthy years on retirement were spent by men having worked in routine non-manual jobs who retired after age 62 (median predicted healthy years 6.5, 95% CI 4.4-9.5). Diabetes was slightly more common among lower occupational class women, and dementia among manual working women having retired at age 60-62. Discussion: Healthy years on retirement are not enjoyed equally by women and men and those who retire early or later. Policies aiming to increase the retirement age should consider the effects of these gaps on retirees and the equitability of those effects.

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Policy Levers of HIV Control: Targeted Service Coverage, Financial Protection, and Estimated New HIV Infections in Southeast Asia, 2013-2022

Hung, J.; Smith, A.

2026-04-13 public and global health 10.64898/2026.04.11.26350590 medRxiv
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The global ambition to end the human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) epidemic requires understanding which system-level policy levers, enacted under the framework of Universal Health Coverage (UHC), are most effective in achieving both transmission reduction and diagnostic coverage. This study addresses an important evidence gap by quantifying the within-country association between measurable UHC policy indicators and the estimated rate of new HIV infections across nine Southeast Asian countries between 2013 and 2022. Employing a Fixed-Effects panel data methodology, the analysis controls for time-invariant national heterogeneity, ensuring reliable estimates of policy impact. We found that marginal changes in total current health expenditure (CHE) as a percentage of gross domestic product (GDP) were not statistically significantly associated with changes in HIV incidence. However, increases in the UHC Infectious Disease Service Coverage Index were statistically significantly associated with concurrent reductions in HIV incidence (p < 0.001), suggesting the efficacy of targeted service implementation as the principal driver of curbing new HIV infections. In addition, the UHC Reproductive, Maternal, Newborn, and Child Health Service Coverage Index exhibited a statistically significant positive association with changes in HIV incidence (p < 0.01), which is interpreted as a vital surveillance artefact resulting from expanded detection and reporting of previously undiagnosed HIV cases. Furthermore, out-of-pocket (OOP) health expenditure as a percentage of CHE showed a counter-intuitive negative association with changes in HIV incidence (p < 0.01), suggesting this metric primarily shows ongoing indirect cost burdens on the established patient cohort, or, alternatively, presents a diagnostic access barrier that results in lower case finding. These findings suggest that policymakers should prioritise investment in targeted infectious disease service efficacy over aggregate fiscal commitment and utilise integrated sexual health platforms for strengthened HIV surveillance and case identification.

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Invasive cervical cancers after an HPV-negative test: insights from screening histories

Hassan, S. S.; Nordqvist-Kleppe, S.; Asinger, N.; Wang, J.; Dillner, J.; Arroyo Muhr, L. S.

2026-04-13 public and global health 10.64898/2026.04.11.26350679 medRxiv
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Human papillomavirus (HPV) testing is the primary method for cervical cancer screening, and a negative HPV test is associated with a very low subsequent risk of invasive cancer. Nevertheless, a small number of cervical cancers are diagnosed following an HPV-negative testing result, posing challenges within HPV-based screening pathways. Using nationwide Swedish registry data of HPV testing, we identified women diagnosed with invasive cervical cancer between 2019 and 2024 and reconstructed HPV testing histories from the National Cervical Screening Registry (NKCx). The most recent HPV test prior to diagnosis was defined as the index test, and longitudinal HPV testing trajectories were classified among women with an HPV-negative index test. Of 3,000 women diagnosed with invasive cancer, 243 (8.1%) had an HPV-negative index test. These women were older at diagnosis and more frequently diagnosed at advanced stages compared with women with an HPV-positive index test. Most HPV-negative index tests (66.3%) were performed in the peri-diagnostic period (+/- 30 days). Among women with an HPV-negative index test, 52.7% (128/243) had no prior HPV testing recorded, while the remainder had consistently HPV-negative histories (33.3%, 83/243) or evidence of prior HPV positivity before the index negative test (14%, 32/243). Possible recurrent HPV positivity following an intervening negative test was rare (0.4%, 1/243). HPV-negative screening results preceding invasive cancer reflect heterogeneous screening histories and cannot be explained solely by test failure. Findings highlighting the importance of reaching women earlier in screening programs and show that fluctuating HPV detectability is rare.

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Patterns and predictors of antibiotic use among livestock owners in northeast Madagascar

Xiao, M.; Girard, Q.; Pender, M.; Rabezara, J. Y.; Rahary, P.; Randrianarisoa, S.; Rasambainarivo, F.; Rasolofoniaina, O.; Soarimalala, V.; Janko, M. M.; Nunn, C. L.

2026-04-13 public and global health 10.64898/2026.04.09.26350537 medRxiv
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PurposeAntibiotic use (ABU) is a major driver of antimicrobial resistance (AMR), but ABU patterns are poorly understood in low-income countries where the burden of AMR is great and ABU is insufficiently regulated. Here, we report ABU from ten sites ranging from rural villages to small cities in Madagascar, a country with high AMR levels, and present results from modeling to identify factors that may be associated with ABU in this setting. MethodsWe conducted surveys of 290 individuals from ten sites in the SAVA Region of northeast Madagascar to gather data on sociodemographic characteristics, agricultural and animal husbandry practices, recent antibiotic use, the antibiotics that participants recalled using in their lifetimes, and the sources of their antibiotics. Using these data, we conducted statistical analyses with a mixed-effects logistic model to determine which characteristics were associated with recent antibiotic use. ResultsNearly all respondents (N=283, 97.6%) reported ABU in their lifetimes, with amoxicillin being the most widely reported antibiotic (N=255, 90.1% of those reporting ABU). All recalled antibiotics were classified as frontline drugs except for ciprofloxacin. Most respondents who reported antibiotic use also reported obtaining antibiotics without prescriptions from local stores (N=273, 96.5%), while only 52.3% (N=148) reported obtaining antibiotics through a prescriptive route, such as from a health clinic or private doctor. Of the 127 individuals (44.9%) who reported recent ABU, men were found to be significantly less likely to have recently taken antibiotics than women. ConclusionsOur findings provide new insights into ABU in agricultural settings in low-income countries, which have historically been understudied in AMR and pharmacoepidemiologic research. Knowledge of ABU patterns supports understanding of AMR dynamics and AMR control efforts in these contexts, such as interventions on inappropriate antibiotic dispensing. Key pointsO_LIAntibiotic use (ABU) in Madagascar is largely unstudied despite its role in antimicrobial resistance (AMR), which Madagascar faces a high burden of. C_LIO_LIABU was widespread among livestock owners in northeast Madagascar, with the majority of study participants reporting ABU in their lifetimes and most people reporting ABU also having taken antibiotics in the previous three months. C_LIO_LIMost respondents reported obtaining their antibiotics from non-pharmaceutical stores, indicating high levels of unregulated ABU, though more than half also reported sourcing their antibiotics through prescriptive means (like doctors and health clinics). C_LIO_LIMen were less likely than women to have taken antibiotics in the previous three months. C_LIO_LIThese findings support the development of interventions to mitigate the burden of AMR in Madagascar and similar contexts while underscoring the need for more comprehensive research on the drivers and patterns of ABU. C_LI Plain language summaryIn this study, we provide basic information on antibiotic use (ABU) patterns in Madagascar, a country that experiences high levels of resistance but has been particularly understudied in AMR and pharmacological research. We surveyed 290 farmers with livestock from ten sites across northeast Madagascar about their ABU and found that nearly all study participants (N=283, 97.6%) have used antibiotics in their lifetimes, while a little under half of those who reported ABU also reported using antibiotics in the previous three months (N=127, 44.9%). The most used antibiotic was amoxicillin (N=255, 90.1%). Most people obtained their antibiotics from sources that do not require prescriptions, like general stores, indicating that most ABU is unregulated. Through modeling, we also found that men were less likely than women to have taken antibiotics in the previous three months (OR=0.50, CI 0.30-0.82). These findings help us better understand the dynamics of ABU in low-income countries, which have historically been understudied in AMR and pharmacological research. They also support efforts to mitigate the burden of AMR by revealing ABU dynamics that may contribute to the emergence and spread of AMR, as well as identifying targets for intervention to curb inappropriate ABU.

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Implementation of point-of-care screening for Chlamydia trachomatis, Neisseria gonorrhoeae, and Trichomonas vaginalis among pregnant women in South Africa: a mixed-methods process evaluation of the Philani Ndiphile trial

Shaetonhodi, N. G.; De Vos, L.; Babalola, C.; de Voux, A.; Joseph Davey, D.; Mdingi, M.; Peters, R. P. H.; Klausner, J. D.; Medina-Marino, A.

2026-04-13 public and global health 10.64898/2026.04.08.26350414 medRxiv
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BackgroundCurable sexually transmitted infections (STIs), including Chlamydia trachomatis, Neisseria gonorrhoeae, and Trichomonas vaginalis, remain highly prevalent among pregnant women in South Africa. Despite poor diagnostic performance in pregnancy, syndromic management remains standard care. Point-of-care (POC) screening enables aetiological diagnosis and same-visit treatment but is not yet included in national guidelines. We conducted a mixed-methods process evaluation to examine determinants of antenatal POC STI screening implementation in public facilities. MethodsThis evaluation was embedded within the three-arm Philani Ndiphile randomized trial (March 2021-February 2025) across four public clinics in the Eastern Cape. Screening used a near-POC, electricity-dependent nucleic acid amplification test with a 90-minute turnaround time. Reach, Adoption, Implementation, and Maintenance were assessed using the RE-AIM framework. Quantitative indicators included uptake of screening, treatment, and follow-up attendance. Qualitative data included in-depth interviews with 20 pregnant women and five focus group discussions with 21 research staff and government healthcare workers. The Consolidated Framework for Implementation Research guided qualitative analysis. Findings were integrated using narrative weaving. ResultsScreening uptake was high (99.0%), with treatment coverage of 95.2% at baseline and 93.5% at repeat screening. Same-day treatment was lower (50.7% and 69.8%) and varied substantially by facility, reflecting operational constraints including turnaround time, patient volume, infrastructure, and electricity. Attendance was higher when screening was integrated into routine ANC. Women valued screening for infant health, while providers recognised advantages over syndromic management but highlighted workforce, resource, and maintenance constraints. Socioeconomic factors, including transport costs, hunger, and work commitments, influenced retention and waiting. ConclusionsAntenatal POC STI screening was acceptable and achieved high treatment coverage in a research setting. However, same-day treatment was constrained by operational requirements of the testing platform. Scale-up will require workflow integration, strengthened health system capacity, and faster diagnostics suited to routine antenatal care. Key MessagesO_ST_ABSWhat is already known on this topicC_ST_ABSSyndromic management remains standard antenatal care in many low-resource settings despite failing to capture up to 89% of infections that remain asymptomatic. Point-of-care aetiological screening has demonstrated feasibility, acceptability, and potential clinical benefit in research settings, yet has not been widely adopted into national policy. Limited evidence exists on the health system requirements and contextual determinants influencing scale-up within routine public facilities. What this study addsThis mixed-methods process evaluation demonstrates high uptake and treatment coverage of antenatal POC STI screening in a trial setting, while identifying facility-level, structural, and socioeconomic factors shaping same-day treatment and retention. We show that implementation success varies substantially across clinics and depends on assay characteristics, workflow integration, human resources, infrastructure reliability, and follow-up capacity. How this study might affect research, practice or policyThese findings provide implementation-relevant evidence to inform national policy deliberations on integrating POC STI screening into antenatal care. Sustainable scale-up will require context-adapted delivery models, strengthened workforce and supply systems, faster diagnostics, and alignment with existing ANC workflows to ensure equitable and durable impact.

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Caregiver knowledge, its determinants and its association with infant and young child feeding and water, sanitation, and hygiene practices among children with severe acute malnutrition in agrarian and pastoral settings of Ethiopia

Areb, M.; Huybregts, L.; Tamiru, D.; Toure, M.; Biru, B.; Fall, T.; Haddis, A.; Belachew, T.

2026-04-13 public and global health 10.64898/2026.04.09.26350480 medRxiv
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BackgroundThis study aimed to assess caregiver knowledge of Infant and Young Child Feeding (IYCF), child health, severe acute malnutrition (SAM) screening, and Community-Based Management of Acute Malnutrition (CMAM), its determinants, and associations with IYCF/ WaSH (water, sanitation, and hygiene) practices among caregivers of children 6-59 months with SAM in Ethiopian agrarian and pastoralist settings. MethodData were from the baseline survey of the R-SWITCH Ethiopia cluster-randomized controlled trial (cRCT), which screened [~]28,000 children aged 6-59 months and identified 686 SAM cases. Caregiver knowledge was evaluated using a validated 32-item questionnaire (Cronbachs for internal reliability) and analyzed via linear mixed-effects and Poisson regression models in Stata 17. ResultsCaregiver knowledge was positively associated with improved IYCF/WaSH practices among children aged 6-23 months with SAM, including higher minimum dietary diversity (MDD: IRR=1.50), minimum acceptable diet (MAD: IRR=1.63), and reduced zero vegetable/fruit intake (IRR=0.77), as well as MDD in children aged 24-59 months, improved water access (IRR=1.19), water treatment (IRR=2.02), and handwashing stations (IRR=1.41). Literate ({beta} = 4.1; 95% CI:1.5-6.6, p= 0.016), pregnant({beta} = 4.4; 95% CI:0.9-7.8, 0.018), having child weighing at a health post/ health center ({beta} = 8.9;95% CI:3.5-14.2,p [&le;] 0.001), and higher household wealth index ({beta} = 11.8;95% CI:3.6-20.1,p= 0.005) were associated with higher knowledge, while possible depression ({beta} = -0.3;95% CI: -0.5 to 0.0, p= 0.015) was associated with lower knowledge. ConclusionCaregiver knowledge determines better IYCF/WaSH practices among children aged 6-59 months with SAM. Literacy, pregnancy, having child weighing at a health post or health center, and greater household wealth were associated with caregivers knowledge, whereas possible depression was associated with lower knowledge. Integrating context-specific caregiver education and mental health support into CMAM, GMP(Growth monitoring and promotion), and primary care services could enhance feeding/WaSH practices in Ethiopia.

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Global determinants of vector-targeted insecticide use in public health: a modeling and mapping analysis

Heffernan, P. M.; van den Berg, H.; Yadav, R. S.; Murdock, C. C.; Rohr, J. R.

2026-04-13 public and global health 10.64898/2026.04.08.26350404 medRxiv
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BackgroundInsecticides remain the cornerstone of mosquito vector control for malaria, dengue, and other mosquito-borne diseases, yet global patterns of deployment and their socioeconomic and environmental drivers are poorly characterized. Understanding where and why insecticides are used is essential for better targeting control efforts and ensuring they are effective, equitable, and efficient. MethodsWe analyzed annual country-level insecticide-use data from 122 countries (1990-2019), reported as standard spray coverage for insecticide-treated nets (ITNs), residual spraying (RS), spatial spraying (SS), and larviciding (LA). Generalized linear mixed models and hurdle models quantified associations between deployment and disease incidence, human development index (HDI), human population density, temperature, and precipitation. Models were evaluated using repeated cross-validation and applied to generate downscaled predictions of insecticide use at subnational administrative region level 2 (ADM2) globally. FindingsInsecticide deployment increased with malaria and dengue incidence, but this response was substantially stronger in higher-HDI countries, indicating that deployment depends on socioeconomic capacity as well as disease burden that leads to weaker scaling in lower-resource settings. Intervention types exhibited distinct patterns; ITN use tracked malaria burden, whereas infrastructure-intensive approaches (e.g., RS and SS) were concentrated in higher-HDI settings and increased with Aedes-borne disease incidence. Downscaled ADM2-level maps uncovered substantial within-country heterogeneity that is obscured at the national scale, highlighting regions where predicted deployment remains low relative to disease risk across sub-Saharan Africa, South Asia, and parts of Latin America. InterpretationGlobal insecticide deployment reflects not only epidemiological need but also economic and logistical capacity, creating mismatches between risk and control. High-resolution mapping can support more equitable allocation of interventions, guide insecticide resistance stewardship, and improve strategic planning as climate and urbanization reshape mosquito-borne disease risk.

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Predictors of intention to use mobile health apps for comprehensive sexuality education among young people in the Democratic Republic of Congo: a correlational study

Maneraguha, F. K.; Cote, J.; Bourbonnais, A.; Arbour, C.; Chagnon, M.; Hatem, M.

2026-04-13 public and global health 10.64898/2026.04.09.26350561 medRxiv
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Background Comprehensive sexuality education (CSE) is essential to the health and well-being of young people. In the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), where more than 65% of the population is under the age of 25, access to interpersonal CSE remains limited owing to sociocultural and structural barriers. This exposes young people to persistent socio-sanitary vulnerabilities. In this context, mobile health apps (MHAs) constitute a promising solution, supported by the growing use of smartphones among young Congolese. However, this group's intention to use MHAs for CSE has been the subject of little research to date. Objective The aim of this study was to identify predictors of intention to use MHAs among young Congolese, based on the extended Unified Theory of Acceptance and Use of Technology (UTAUT2). Methods A predictive correlational study was conducted in eight public secondary schools in Bukavu (DRC) with a stratified random sample of 859 students. Predictors of intention to use--performance expectancy (PE), effort expectancy (EE), social influence (SI), facilitating conditions (FC), and perceived risk (PR)--and moderators--age, gender, and past MHA experience--were measured from data collected through a self-administered UTAUT questionnaire. Descriptive and multivariate analyses were run on SPSS version 28. Results Mean age of participants was 16.3 years (SD = 1.5). Boys made up 55.1% of the sample. Overall, 51.0% of the sample owned a smartphone, of which 62.3% reported having easy access to mobile data and 16.2% were already using MHAs to learn about sexual health. Intention to use MHAs was positively influenced by PE ({beta} = 0.523, p < 0.001), EE ({beta} = 0.115, p < 0.001), and SI ({beta} = 0.113, p < 0.001). FC (p = 0.260) and PR (p = 0.631), however, had no significant influence. Age moderated all of the relationships tested (F (1, 849-854) = 9.97-20.82; p [&le;] 0.002), with more marked effects observed among younger participants 14-15 years old. The final model explained 44% of the variance, indicating good predictive power. Conclusion Intention to use digital CSE was explained primarily by PE, EE, and SI and moderated by age. To strengthen this intention, stakeholders will need to promote e-interventions that are pertinent, easy to use, socially valorized, and tailored to young people's needs and to the local context.